Effect of the Energy Crisis on Pakistans Economy

stamp of the Energy Crisis on Pakistans EconomyJAWAD KHANIntroductionEnergy crisis is specify as price rise of the push unlesston resources or a gravid shortfall in the supply of the resources of ability. Usually it is referred to shortage of electrical faculty, oil, rude(a) gas, and different natural resources. Where the globalization has budged the world entirely, it emerged m each issues but muscularity accepted significant at decenniumtion from researchers. The demand for zipper is increasing rapidly in this globalizing world with respect to supply resultantly crisis for brawniness has emerged. Most of the countries argon cladding shortage of expertness and consequently it is severely affecting the frugal ripening and social transformation. in that location are numerous views and ideas that potentially make linkage surrounded by vigour and scotch festering. Energy is considered as a horse sense of every providence and plays an important role in the soc io- frugalal emergence of a country. If in that location is not sufficient zippo, industrialization forget not fruit place, it is crucial for visitationning industries and output units, for residual and commercial using up and for transportation, and so forth As expansion in readiness is expected to result lofty(prenominal) change similarly its shortage may hold back the egress process. In short, deliverance is vital for running all the resources and energy crisis at a time influence all the sectors of economy such as agriculture sector, industrial sector, unemployment, poverty, lower gross domestic product and higher inflation. Unfortunately, Pakistan is facing worst energy crisis in its history. Like other developing countries Pakistan is as well as an energy intensive increment economy, and as in most other non-oil producing countries its energy needs are met by large quantities of imports. Pakistan energys infrastructure is not hale certain and said to be man aged poorly. Despite of population harvest-time, stinting process and increased demand during the past decades, no serious efforts were made for the genesis of energy. Moreover electrical energy theft and transmission losses due to overage infrastructure have worsened the situation.ObjectiveThe main objective of the charter is to find out the extent of energy crisis impact on scotch branch of Pakistan.Literature ReviewGlobal Perspective member 1 For India and Indonesia, simplex sodbuster designer is assemble in the short run, patch for Thailand and Philippines in that location is bifacial causality that runs from energy to income. Energy, income and prices were mutually casual for Thailand and Philippines. (Asafu-Adjaye, 2000). article 2 There is positive impact on economical growth by electrical energy breathing in and bidirectional causality is found amongst electricity ingestion of goods and services and economic growth. It shows that greater electricity habi t leads to higher economic growth and similarly higher economic growth create electricity white plague (Bayar, 2014). name 3 Using error subject model and granger non-causality examens, empirical results shows that in Pakistan sheath thither runs simplex farmers causality from coal to gross domestic product, gross domestic product to total energy consumption GDP to electricity consumption. In case of Bangladesh and Sri lanka, unidirectional causality runs from GDP to electricity consumption, there is causal direction from petroleum to GDP in case of Nepal. While no causality was found in case of India (Asghar, 2008). expression 4 Using integration seeks on the panel data for ten Latin American countries, results show that for all the countries taken in sample, bidirectional causality exist between energy consumption and GDP. For further studies gentlemans gentleman big(p), physical keen and labor can be included in variables as these are also important factors (Campo S armiento, 2013). word 5 Applying various(a) tests on panel data of Pakistan, India, Sri lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, in short-run there is unidirectional causality that runs from GDP per capita to energy consumption per capita, objet dart in long-run, there is negative kin between these two (Noor Siddiqi, 2010).Article 6 There is causality found from energy consumption to GDP and GDP to energy consumption but it is found more extensively in developed OECD countries in compare to the developing non-OECD countries. It shows that impact of electricity consumption on GDP for developed countries is greater than developing countries of the world (Chontanawat, Hunt, Pierse, 2006).Article 7 Analysis indicates that energy consumption and GDP co integrate with all(prenominal) other. Scarcity of energy is a big constraint for the growth of an economy but when there is plentiful energy then it effects on economy is less(prenominal)en (Stern D. I., 2010).Article 8 In short-run, energy cons umption and GDP, and energy consumption and exports are co-integrated with each other. It shows that some(prenominal) crisis in energy will result in trade reduction which in bite will affect the GDP growth (Shakeel, Iqbal, Majeed, 2013).Article 9 Applying test on over 90 countries divided into 4 income groups, Ganger causality run from GDP to energy consumption in long run for high and low income groups, bit bidirectional Gangers causality between GDP and energy consumption for lower middle and upper middle groups. While consistently there is a strong relationship for the sample countries between energy consumption and economic growth (Farhani Rejeb, 2012).Article 10 Taking 23 countries into sample and applying dynamic panel data GMM-system, there is unidirectional causality that runs from GDP per capita to energy consumption (Nayan, Kadir, Ahmad, Abdullah, 2013).Article 11 Co-integration for the real output, energy, heavy(p) and labor is found using bound test. The results prove causality from energy consumption to GDP for all the countries in both short-term long-run. This gist economy of each country is lookent on energy and energy crisis will definitely result in reduction of economic growth (Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007).From Developed Countries PerspectiveArticle 12 Granger causality test and co-integration analysis shows that energy consumption is strongly linked with economic activities as nearly as economic growth. Energy required to produce a GNP unit can be reduced by break to high quality of energy (Stern D. I., 2003).Article 13 Taking GDP and energy consumption as variables for France and applying VEC along geo-statistical methods, there is long-run unidirectional causality flow from energy consumption to economic growth (Amiri Zibaei, 2012).Article 14 Positive relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was found for Turkey from 1960-2008. This relationship over the past fewer years has strengthened which doer econom y dependency on energy (especially oil) has increased (Saatci Dumrul, 2013).Article 15 For Turkey, there is bidirectional causality between energy production and economic growth, which inwardness increase in energy production will increase economic growth and same counsel around. Also bidirectional relationship between energy import and economic growth exists which means increase of energy amount to be merchandise will increase the economic activity and growth (Ozkan, zkan, Kuyuk, 2012).Article 16 Johansen-Juselius co-integration methodology and Vector Error Correction Modeling results indicate a unidirectional causality that run from energy consumption to GDP. Thus any kind of possible short-fall in energy may affect the process of economic growth of Turkey (Soytas, Sari, Ozdemir, 2001).From Developing Countries PerspectiveArticle 17 For Malaysia, taking energy consumption as dependent variable and GDP, fiscal development, population as independent variables, results shows th at economic growth and financial development influence energy consumption in short-run as well as long-run. Energy consumption is also influenced by population in long-run (Islam, Shahbaz, Ahmed, Alam, 2013).Article 18 Time series data from 1954 to 1997 for Taiwan, bidirectional causality is found between total energy consumption (coal, oil, natural gas and electricity) and economic growth (YangU, 2000).Article 19 For China, no co-integration was found between GDP and energy consumption by Johansen co-integration test dapple using Hsiaos Granger causality there is bidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth (Hou, 2009).Article 20 Studying the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for Tunisia during 1971-2007, bivariate vector auto-regression structure show existence of unidirectional causality is found from electricity consumption to economic growth (Chouaibi Abdasalem, 2009).Article 21 When examined with VECM and Johansen co-integration estimation, results shows unidirectional causality that runs from energy consumption to GDP while in long-run, feedback relationship exists between them. So for Tunisia, energy limits the economic growth. So any shocks to energy supply will badly effect the economic growth (Belloumi, 2009).Article 22 The analysis shows that real GDP is significantly impacted by the present as well as past changes in the supply of electricity. For every 1MWh increase in supply of electricity there is an extra output of Rs.88000-137000 (Morimoto Hope, 2001).From Under-developing Countries PerspectiveArticle 23 In the economy of Nigeria, there is a positive and strong relationship between depicted object income and energy use. Ganger causality results bidirectional relationship between manufacturing capacity recitation energy consumption (Kabir, Zaku, A.A.Tukur, J.G, 2013).Article 24 For the period under study, results harbour that the Vietnams economic growth is not limited by the energy consumption. With increase in economic growth demand for energy use increases but not vice versa (Binh, 2011).From Pakistan PerspectiveArticle 25 In Pakistan, increase in energy supply will increase the economic growth while any crisis in energy supply will lead to barrier in economic growth. The impact of petroleum products and electricity is significantly high (Siddiqui, 2004).Article 26 Applying co-integration and Hsiaos version of Granger causality on time series data from 1956 to 1996, results shows higher electricity consumption leads to economic growth while there is no feedback relationship. outgrowth and decrease in petroleum consumption does not affect economic growth but economic growth causes petroleum use. And there is no co-integration between gas consumption and economic growth (Aqeel butt, 2001).Article 27 In industries, cost of production may increase due to any shocks in the energy supply but investment in capital stock is not affected by these energy sho cks (Mahmud, 2000).Article 28 With model of non-linear relationship, real output is negative affected by the change in prices of crude oil no matter these changes or less or more than the critical price of crude oil. Subsidies on electricity should be provided by the administration (Kiani, 2011).Article 29 Electricity consumption and economic growth are in a long-run proportionality relationship, electricity consumption do not leads to economic growth but economic growth leads to electricity consumption, as analyzed by Granger causality test with ARDL bounds testing approach (Shahbaz Feridun, 2011).Article 30 For GDP and oil consumption, and electricity and GDP there is a unidirectional relationship while in case of gas and GDP dis spare-time activity relationship is proved. Demand for oil consumption will increase by any future growth in agriculture sector (Mushtaq, Abbas, Abedullah, Ghafoor, 2007).Article 31 From 2007 to 2009 (post energy crisis period) performance is declined by the industries of framework, cement and engineering while during the same period the industries of sugar and chemical remain consistent. To save the industries, government of Pakistan should focus on energy sector (Khurshid Anwar, 2013).Article 32 A long-run relationship exists between electricity consumption and GDP. There is a unidirectional causality that runs from electricity use to economic growth this means that any possible energy crisis may retard the process of economic growth in Pakistan. Government needs to invest in energy infrastructure in order to support economic growth (Yasmin, Javid, Ashraf, 2013).Article 33 Horizontal analysis of the major ratios of textile industry results that as compared to pre energy crisis period, the performance of textile industry is badly affected in post energy crisis period (Shah, Essrani, Shah, Rahat, 2013).Article 34 Analysis through multiple linear regression analysis of independent variables electricity use and interest rate, shows that there is negative relationship between output of textile industry and energy use, and also out of textile industry and interest rate. Government should take serious actions for the survival of industries (Afzal, 2012).Article 35 From GDP to energy consumption there is one way causality resulted from Granger causality test while positive relationship also exists between them while tested by ordinary least squares method. GDP increases by 1.23% for 1% increase in energy consumption (Ahmad, Hayat, Hamad, Luqman, 2012).Article 36 Johansen co-integration test and VECM confirms that there is positive relationship between energy consumption and industrial output, bidirectional causality for oil consumption, unidirectional causality from electricity use to industrial output and from industrial output to coal consumption, while for gas consumption no causality exist (Qazi, Ahmed, Mudassar, 2012).Article 37 Using tools as Ganger causality tests, statistical analysis, correlation analysis, shows that GDP of Pakistan depend on energy consumption which include all forms i.e. electricity, oil, gas, coal. For trade there is unidirectional causality found from GDP to trade openness which means growth in GDP promotes trade openness (Chaudhry, Safdar, Farooq, 2012).Article 38 Any rise in prices of energy will affect the economic growth. As prices rises, manufacturers will either improve the quality standards or curl off the labor in order to survive in the securities industry (Rashid, Azeem, Ramzan, 2012).Article 39 Bound testing approach to co-integration and Ganger causality test results bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in short-run, while unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption in long-run. Frequent changes in energy price also impact economic growth (Adnan Riaz, 2008).Article 40 By applying structural Vector Auto-regression, results reveal that economic growth increases the demand for labor force, capital stock and energy consumption. Pakistan government needs to supply energy at affordable prices to facilitate growth in economic activities (Zeshan Vaqar, 2013).